Estimation of Intravenous Drug Users’ Population in Kermanshah City, West of Iran in 2016 using Capture-recapture Method

Forod Azhdar, Nader Esmaeilnasab, Ghobad Moradi, Daem Roshani, Ebrahim Ghaderi, Bijan Nori


Background: Drug abuse, particularly intravenous drug use, is one of the most common challenges in human communities so that its negative impact on economic and cultural conditions of society and physical as well as mental health of individuals is evident. We aimed to estimate the IDUs’ population in Kermanshah City, West of Iran using Capture-recapture method.

Study Design: A Cross-sectional study.

Methods: The data in this study were collected from three different sources: Drop in Centers (DICs), Out Reach Teams (ORTs) and Methadone Maintenance Treatment centers (MMTs) in Kermanshah City from Mar 2015 until Mar 2016, and then indirect Capture-recapture was used to estimate the IDUs’ population.

Results: The number of IDUs registered in DICs, ORTs, and MMTs were 694, 731, and 156 cases, respectively. Having determined the commonalities and removing duplicates, the number of drug users registered were 1,375 cases, after analysis of data, the number of drug users not registered in any center was estimated as 2,042 (95% CI: 1708, 2444). By counting 1,375 cases recorded in these sources, the total number of injection drug users in the Kermanshah City was about 3,417 people, (95% CI: (3083, 3819).

Conclusions: The prevalence of IDUs in Kermanshah City is high, which could cause severe economic and social problems in the society. To reduce the negative effects of drug use, awareness and measuring of the drug users population, seem to be necessary overtime.



Capture-recapture; Intravenous Drug Users; Iran

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