How Can the Epidemic Curve of COVID-19 in Iran Be Interpreted?

Amin Doosti-Irani, Ali Akbar Haghdoost, Farid Najafi, Sana Eybpoosh, Ghobad Moradi, Fahimeh Bagheri Amiri, Leila Mounesan, Ehsan Mostafavi

Abstract


Background: Iran is one of the countries most affected by COVID-19. This review provides possible interpretations of the observed trend of COVID-19 in Iran.

Study design: A rapid review

Methods: We reviewed the daily new cases of COVID-19 based on hospitalized and outpatients, reported deaths, and diagnostic testing in Iran.

Results: Iran reported its first peak in the number of cases in late March, 2020. From the 1 April to 3 May 2020, the downward trend in the number of cases was started. The death trend also showed a peak in early April as well as a downward trend in late April. During May, the number of death cases showed a stable trend with a daily number of deaths ranging between 50 and 75 cases. Then the number of deaths gradually increased.

Conclusion: The epidemic curve in Iran is a function of different factors such number of total tests, change in mitigation policies, and heterogeneities among different provinces in the country. Therefore it should be interpreted under the light of the effect of such factors.


Keywords


COVID-19; Epidemics; Iran

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